Brian Schweitzer move aids GOP in battle for Senate

Former Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer's surprise announcement

Saturday that he won't run for Senate in Montana imperils Democrats'

chances of holding the seat and could further narrow an ever-shrinking

2014 Senate map.

Already, Republicans are favored to win two seats left vacant by

Democratic retirements — in West Virginia and South Dakota — and the

Schweitzer move will make it much easier for the GOP to win in

Montana.

That means the battle for the majority will likely be fought in a

handful of red states with Democratic incumbents, including North

Carolina, Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska.

To capture the net six seats it needs to take back the majority in

2014, the GOP will also have to successfully defend Minority Leader

Mitch McConnell in Kentucky and avoid a bloody primary in Georgia that

could give Democrats an opening in the red state.

Schweitzer roiled the Senate landscape when he told the Associated

Press Saturday that he wants to stay in Montana rather than move to

Washington, D.C. But his potential candidacy was also raising red

flags within the party: After weeks of courting the 57-year-old

Schweitzer, Democratic leaders reversed course in recent days.

Scrutinizing Schweitzer's past, they concluded there was too much

ammunition for Republicans to use against him in the campaign to

replace the retiring veteran Democrat Max Baucus, according to a

source familiar with the thinking of those leaders.

Polls had shown the gregarious and folksy ex-governor as a favorite in

the race, given his popularity after two terms in office. The

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had said as recently as

Wednesday there would be "tremendous support" for Schweitzer if he

decided to run.

Schweitzer had been hit with a series of damaging stories about his

ties to "secret money" and a nonprofit group run by former aides. But

sources said the laundry list of opposition research went much deeper

— and could have crippled a Schweitzer campaign for Senate. Moreover,

there was fear that Schweitzer's penchant for off-the-cuff remarks

would hurt his ability to respond effectively to the barrage of GOP

attacks.

Schweitzer ended a long Republican run of control of the governor's

office when he was first elected in 2004. But he frequently sparred

with fellow top Democrats in the state, including Baucus and Sen. Jon

Tester. Unease within the party about Schweitzer's presumed candidacy

had begun to surface in recent days.

Still, Schweitzer would have very formidable, forcing both parties to

spend millions in what could have been a closely contested fight.

In Montana, Democrats said Saturday they still had a chance and there

were other possible Democratic candidates who could give Republicans a

serious run. Those potential Democratic candidates include Denise

Juneau, Montana's state public schools superintendent; Stephanie

Schriock, the president of Emily's List; and Monica Lindeen, Montana

insurance commissioner.

"Running for the U.S. Senate is a big decision for a potential

candidate and their family. Just because this year wasn't the right

time for Brian to run doesn't mean we don't have great Montana

Democrats who are willing to run and capable of winning the seat,"

Tester said in a statement.

And Republicans could have their own tough primary in Montana. It

remains to be seen how the Republican primary shapes up — and whether

Rep. Steve Daines decides to jump in against former state Sen. Corey

Stapleton and state Rep. Champ Edmunds.

Nevertheless, Schweitzer's move is expected to stun the Democratic

political establishment — particular in Montana, where the party was

gathering this weekend for the state convention in Lewistown, Mont.

His decision will also disappoint the left, which embraced the

populist governor when he backed a liberal health care overhaul plan

in 2009 as Baucus played dealmaker in the Senate.

And his decision to forgo the campaign will leave Democrats without

their biggest name — and personality — in the race.

"We remain confident that Democrats can hold the Montana seat and the

overall math still favors Democrats next year," Guy Cecil, the

executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee,

said in a statement. "Only three Democratic incumbents have lost

reelection in the last decade. Our incumbents are positioned to win,

we've already recruited a strong challenger to Mitch McConnell and

Republicans have failed to expand the senate map into blue and purple

states."

Republicans, of course, had a different take.

"Just two days ago, Senate Democrats were quoted promising Brian

Schweitzer tremendous resources to get in the race," said National

Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brad Dayspring. "We did our

homework and there was a lot of rust under Schweitzer's hood, but just

as important is that he looked at the race and realized he wouldn't

win in light of how unpopular the Democrat agenda of higher taxes,

bankrupting spending, and the Obamacare train wreck is in Montana

these days."